Dear Aviators
I write this with tears streaming down my cheeks. Alas, do not be dismayed as these are tears of absolute joy. The long awaited official NBS calculator finally has been released. Before I delve into what us faithful aviators can earn let’s look at whats been happening in the market over the last 6 months since I released my speculative article which received over 18k reads.
Here is that article for those that might have not read it yet-https://blazingburgundy.medium.com/the-greatest-passive-income-in-crypto-f021eedd5922
DEX (Decentralized Exchange) and especially AMM (Automatic Market Makers) have become increasingly popular. I actually rarely trade on a CEX (Centralized Exchange) these days and only do so if absolutely necessary.
With that being said, let’s take a deeper look at the market in general and Uniswap. The daily volume has grown exponentially and not to mention the daily volume of some coins on there are astoundingly absurd.
Firstly, the market in general
Thanks to my good friend Matrix for these charts
We cant ignore the tremendous growth of the crypto market for the last 12 months especially the volumes that have occurred, exceeded all expectations.
We can barely see 2017 peak volumes on this chart.
Once we break all time high, it is just the beginning of the most epic run in financial history and even though we don’t know where will be the next top we can surely imagine what volumes will be brought into exchanges.
Lets take the total market cap and compare 2017 and 2021 volumes:
- January 2018 — 24h volume peaked at $71bil (End of bull)
- January 2021 — 24h volume peaked at $440bil (Start of bull)
We are already 6x higher while we have only just broken ATH.
A great example is to look deeper into the past where in June 2014 we had just $28mil volume and after breaking ATH exactly 2 years later in June 2016 we already saw $220mil… fast forward to 2017 and well, you can see we are in the mega billions.
What comes next? Trillions.
Imagine 1% of that goes through the ORN trading terminal.
Now, let focus on Uniswap.
Uniswap was launched in June 2020 and quickly in that very same month it was achieving daily volumes of between $10m and $20m daily.
July was even more remarkable and we saw volumes peaking in excess of $100m daily.
Then August came along and really started going buck wild. Bang, just like that, its best performing days exceeded $1b in daily trading volume. What even makes this more astounding is that it is real volume and not wash trading which occurs on most CEX.
September through to December it remained fairly steady in the $100s of millions per day which is a phenomenal achievement for a AMM not even 6 months old and all the while, traders were happy to pay exorbitant fees due to the Ethereum Network being congested all the time.
Imagine what the volumes would really be like if we weren’t limited to slow and outrageously expensive fees? Elrond will remedy this.
Why did this happen?
- New and hottest projects opted to launch on Uniswap due to their being no exorbitant fees to do so
- Repatriation of wealth for liquidity providers with many projects adding further reward incentives. Fees generated go directly to liquidity providers and not all the fees going to one company which is the case with CEX
- Non custodial, meaning you retain control of your funds and can trade from your own wallet
The above has been further exacerbated by many exchange hacks and one of the more famous hacks that occurred was Kucoin. They lost millions and millions in the hack and quite frankly, did a very poor job of rectifying the matter and should be thanking the affected projects, as they were the ones who truly came to the rescue for their investors.
So here we sit at the start of 2021 and Uniswap is achieving average daily volumes of $1b as can be seen in the below daily volume chart. What even makes this more exciting is the Total Value Locked (TVL) on Uniswap which is currently $3.12B.
Some other Swapping pools who are doing phenomenally well are Sushiswap(average daily volume is between $300 and $500 million) and 1INCH Exchange(average daily volume is between $50 and $100 million)
I guess everybody thinks I am gonna start breaking down that sweet sweet passive income right about now but, one more subject we must broach before then.
How has the Notorious Big Poppa aka Binance and some of the other Tier 1 and 2 exchanges been performing over the last 6 months?
6 months ago Binance was doing $9 billion daily volume. Now it has days when it hits a stupendous $20billion a day and its best day to date was $27billion.
Lets look at Kucoin and how it has been doing since the hack and quite frankly, it has lost a lot of credibility and once was my favorite CEX but now I am hardly on there at all. It is still achieving $400m to $500m daily volumes after all that has transpired
Now I will bring up two exchanges, Poloniex and Bittrex, that you might think to yourself why am I even bringing them up. Well the reason is, that these two were the ‘Binance’ of their times and were the leading exchanges in 2016 and 2017. They are both still doing several hundred million dollars in daily trading volume.
Now is the time for the pièce de résistance.
There have been some changes which further enhance your earning potential. Small staking lockup periods have been introduced.
If you lockup your tokens for 1 week then you will receive 10% extra and if you lockup for one month you will get 25% extra.
So let’s say you choose either the one week or month lockup, and you stake 10,000 ORN, you’d get rewards as if you staked 11,000 ORN (1 week) or 12,500 ORN (1 month)
So now that I have waffled on, lets talk about these juicy numbers that everyone is frothing at the mouth to find out.
I will break it down from a bearish scenario right through to an ultra bullish one.
For the sake of simplification, I will use the following parameters for my calculations.
20 million ORN staked (34million will be circulating by the end of 2021)
The official fee share will be 0.08% for NBS plus the broker share which is averaged at 0.02%, resulting in a 0.1% calculation.
Besides the daily terminal volume there are estimates that the following Orion Protocol Product Suite’ will bring these additional daily volumes ($260 million combined), when adding:
Liquidity Boost Plugin (LBP) — $10 million daily
Dex Kit (DEX Kit) — $200 million daily
Launchpad and Enterprise Swap Widget (LSW/ESW)— $50 million daily
Scenario 1 (Bearish): $112 million daily volume with ORN price at $7 ( equivalent volume to 1INCH)
Same parameters but now including LBP, Dex Kit & LSW/ESW daily volumes
Scenario 2 (Neutral): $276 million daily volume with ORN price at $10 ( equivalent volume to Sushiswap)
Same parameters but now including LBP, Dex Kit & LSW/ESW daily volumes
Scenario 3(Bullish ): $942m daily volume with ORN price at $20 ( equivalent volume to Uniswap)
Same parameters but now including LBP, Dex Kit & LSW/ESW daily volumes
Scenario 4(Ultra Bullish and we pull a Binance): $10 billion daily volume with ORN price at $50
Same parameters but now including LBP, Dex Kit & LSW/ESW daily volumes
Just about all of us speculate and invest in this space with an end goal of wanting to sell that investment at a higher price in the future. Well after breaking down, what seems perfectly reasonable to me, the collective volume that can quite easily be achieved by Orion Protocol’ suite of products.
Is this the first token in crypto history where the price doesn’t matter and it is indeed secondary?
You see the beauty about being an ORN Non Broker Staker(NBS) is that it is simply the next generation of trading as we know it. Technology moves in cycles and the space has matured now that a product like this is the logical next step. BNB 2.0
Whatever the market cycle.
You will earn cold hard ORN everyday, 365 days a year, in bullish and bearish times.
Lastly, what would this article be without including a statement from my Orion brother in arms, tehMoonwalkeR
“A few kids managed to pump DOGE to a $4B MC, now think what will happen, when funds like Grayscale grasp the potential of Orion Protocol, it basically makes trading as we know it obsolete.
VHS-DVD-USB-STREAM
CEX-DEX-ORN
Also remember, Doge and even BTC do not have further incentive to HODL except for price appreciation.
Holding ORN actually is a MUST for any broker and staker.
We have seen liquidity shocks for BTC & ETH , ORN will be even more rare”
